When Immigration Matters

The new fiscal year begins on October 1, and with it comes a new infusion of
visa numbers! Below are highlights from the October 2014 Visa
Bulletin and Charlie's predictions for future movement based on information
available as of September 9, 2014.

As we anxiously await the April 2013 visa bulletin, I thought it would be interesting to repost AILA predictions regarding visa availability.  Take particular note of possible further visa retrogression for EB2 from India.  Cite as “AILA InfoNet Doc. No. 12012349 (posted Feb. 22, 2013)” 

The bulletin summarizes the availability of immigrant numbers in March. The employment-based second preference cut-off date for China has advanced to February 15, 2008 and the cut-off date for India remains at September 1, 2004.

Analysis of February 2013 Visa Bulletin

The February 2013 Visa Bulletin does not provide predictions for cutoff date movement later in the year.  Let’s hope that the highly anticipated Immigration Reform which President Obama says must happen this year---will bring current the wait times for visas in both the employment and family based categories.   

On Thursday, August 30, 2012, Roberta Freedman, AILA Students & Scholars Committee member, and Mike Nowlan, Chair of the AILA Business Committee, discussed the Visa Bulletin, visa demand in the employment preference categories, and predictions for FY2012 and FY2013 with Charlie Oppenheim of the Department of State’s Visa Office. These are only discussions of what could happen and are not assurances or guarantees by the Visa Office, as changes in visa usage result in changes in the Visa Bulletin.

On Tuesday, June 19, 2012, Roberta Freedman, AILA Students & Scholars Committee member, discussed the Visa Bulletin, visa demand in the employment preference categories, and predictions for FY2012 and beyond with Charlie Oppenheim of the Visa Office (AILA INfonet Doc No. 12012349 posted 6/28/2012). Here are notes from that discussion:

The Department of State’s July Visa Bulletin, provides no surprises. As predicted, there is a slowdown as the government approaches these last three months of its fiscal year. Due to heavy demand against the annual 140,000 quota, priority dates in the EB-2 category, which were previously “current,” have now retrogressed to January 1, 2009. EB-2 priority dates for Chinese and Indian nationals have already been unavailable. There is only nominal movement in the EB-3 category. The State Department warned that later this summer, if heavy demand continues, it may become necessary to make all EB-2 visa numbers unavailable prior to September 30, 2012, the end of the fiscal year.   EB2
 Workers other than India and China, with a Priority date after January 1, 2009 should file their adjustment applications by the end of the month